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The Australian Coastal Zone and Global Change: Research Needs

Australian Academy of Science, Becker House, Canberra. Friday 16 December 1994

Monitoring sea level and modelling extreme events - continued

OH 25: residuals at 6 minute intervals from seaframe stations

Overhead 25

As you see, the coastal trapped waves around Australia, west coast and on the south coast; you also see these very interesting oscillations in the Bass Strait. We also use these for hurricane prediction - I should not say 'hurricane', but 'storm surge' prediction.

This is a model, a hurricane model developed by Greg Holland, who is the next speaker. I will not go into the details (Overheads 26, 27 and 28).

OH 26: tropical cyclone model - sea level pressure

Overhead 26

OH 27: tropical cyclone model - sea level pressure

Overhead 27

OH 28: Fiji - residuals for 9 to 11 Dec 1992

Overhead 28

OH 29: Sea level anomalies

Overhead 29

This is the final one I would like to show you (Overhead 29). We are also experimenting a bit. Everybody is into the act of El Nino prediction, so why not see if we can relate it to the sea levels. There is some skill, I should say, though in the recent one we were not that successful.

OH 30: sea level anomalies

Overhead 30

This is the El Nino in 1982 (Overhead 30), the year before and the year after. What our gauges are showing is seven to 10 centimetre residuals, in extreme cases 15 centimetre positive anomalies the year before and negative anomalies the year after - during the El Nino - and sort of neutral, slightly negative the following year. This worked for the 1982, but the present one began in 1991. But whether it is the same one continuing or a new one, so we could not really produce a diagram yet. Since I have run out of my time I will stop there and thank you very much.

Professor Roger McLean: Thanks very much, Tad. Our final speaker is Dr Greg Holland from the BMR Research Centre. Perhaps in his talk Greg will attempt to answer a question that Professor Henderson-Sellers asked of Peter Saenger earlier.