Loss of terrestrial climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases

Advice to the Minister for the Environment and Heritage from the Threatened Species Scientific Committee on a public nomination of a Key Threatening Process under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999

1. Name and description of the key threatening process

Name

The nomination for listing 'Loss of terrestrial climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases' as a Key Threatening Process was originally submitted under the Endangered Species Protection Act 1992 (ESP Act).

For the purposes of re-assessment of the nomination under the EPBC Act the nominator provided further information which widened the title and definition of the threatening process to include marine areas and marine species. The name of the process nominated is now:

'Loss of climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases'

Description

The 'Loss of climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases' consists of reductions in the bioclimatic range within which a given species or ecological community exists due to emissions induced by human activities of greenhouse gases. Human activities are described in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The categories of human-induced activities are: energy; industrial processes; solvent and other product use; agriculture; land use change and forestry; and waste. Greenhouse gases are the main greenhouse gases identified in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory.

The distribution of the nominated process is continental. Ecosystems in which the process occurs include: alpine habitats; coral reefs; wetlands and coastal ecosystems; polar communities; tropical forests; temperate forests; and arid and semi-arid environments.

Non-biological components of the process include: temperature rise; changes in rainfall patterns; changes to the El Nino Southern Oscillation; and sea level rise.

2. How judged by TSSC in relation to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 criteria

A. Could the threatening process cause a native species or an ecological community to become eligible for listing as Extinct, Extinct in the Wild, Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable?

B. Could the threatening process cause a native species or an ecological community to become eligible to be listed in another category representing a higher degree of endangerment?

C. Does the threatening process adversely affect 2 or more listed threatened species (other than conservation dependent species) or 2 or more listed threatened ecological communities?

In its original assessment, the nominated process was found (by the Endangered Species Scientific Sub-committee, ESSS):

A. to meet the ESP Act criterion for 'adversely affecting two or more listed species'. ESSS concluded 'that the nominated process may well threaten some species, and to the extent that ESSS has assessed the evidence, the possibility is one that should be taken seriously'; and

B. to meet ESP Act criterion 'that it could cause native species that are not endangered to become endangered'. ESSS concluded 'many species of flora and fauna are restricted to relatively small bioclimatic habitats and could become endangered due to the threatening process'.

ESSS also noted that there is a strong body of evidence and opinion that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is a contributor to climate change.

Additional recent information provided by the nominator adds to the list of species considered to be adversely affected by the threatening process: the dugong (Dugong dugon), and 23 bird 'species'. Further information on the birds listed by the nominator indicates 1 species and 17 subspecies which are potentially threatened by climate change-related processes (sea level rise or warmer climate).

Further updated information (since ESSS advice was prepared) includes:

the NSW Scientific Committee has made a Final Determination to list 'Anthropogenic Climate Change' as a Key Threatening Process on Schedule 3 of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995
the Victorian Flora and Fauna Guarantee Scientific Advisory Committee has made a Final Recommendation to support a nomination for listing 'Loss of terrestrial climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases' under the Flora and Fauna Guarantee Act 1988; and
several major recent studies on the impacts of global climate change on ecosystems, including the relationship between climate change and marine ecological communities, in particular coral systems.

Conclusion - The TSSC re-affirmed the conclusions of ESSS regarding the effects of this threatening process on listed and unlisted species and ecological communities. TSSC believe that 'Loss of climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases':

could cause a native species or an ecological community to become eligible for listing in any category, other than conservation dependant;
could cause a listed threatened species or a listed threatened ecological community to become eligible to be listed in another category representing a higher degree of endangerment; and
adversely affects 2 or more listed threatened species (other than conservation dependant) or 2 or more listed threatened ecological communities.

The threatening process meets s188(4)(a), s188(4)(b) and s188(4)(c) of the EPBC Act.

3. Threat Abatement Plan

In their original assessment of the nomination ESSS provided advice that 'a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases requires an internationally-coordinated effort and that international efforts have been and will continue to be made in this area'. ESSS concluded that a nationally coordinated threat abatement plan was not considered a feasible, effective and efficient way to abate the process, 'as most emissions of greenhouse gases are produced outside Australia and a reduction in emissions will require complex national and international negotiations'. ESSS also added 'As part of this process Australia should be making every effort to significantly reduce its contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere'.

ESSS therefore provided advice not to list ''loss of terrestrial climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases' as a Key Threatening Process since the process did not meet the Threat Abatement Plan criterion under the ESP Act. This restriction is no longer applicable under the EPBC Act.

In the last three and a half years (since the nomination was prepared), there have been many changes in greenhouse gas policies and regulations in Australia. Examples include:

establishment of the Australian Greenhouse Office, the Commonwealth lead agency on greenhouse matters;
endorsement, by all Commonwealth and State/Territory jurisdictions, of the National Greenhouse Strategy, which provides a strategic framework and measures for advancing Australia's greenhouse response; and
the 1999 'Measures for a Better Environment' package of initiatives which includes the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Program, providing $400 million over 4 years from 2000 to reduce Australia's greenhouse gas emissions.

The proposed scope for a Threat Abatement Plan suggested by the nominator concentrates on the adaptation to climate change, rather than reducing the loss of climatic habitat, reducing climate change, or reducing the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The threat abatement plan suggested in the nomination involves a habitat conservation planning regime to help facilitate adaptive responses to climate change for those affected species and communities listed under the ESP Act.

TSSC consider that, although contingency strategies for adaptation to climate change are desirable, a threat abatement plan could not be effective in mitigating the threat unless it includes mechanisms to reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases around the world. This is because loss of climatic habitat will continue if the climate continues to change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions.

A reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases requires an internationally-coordinated effort. Australia is a signatory to the relevant international agreements, and has made a commitment to limit greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the States and Territories are pursuing additional opportunities to abate greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective and environmentally sensitive manner.

The National Greenhouse Strategy (NGS) for Australia has the goals: 'to limit net greenhouse gas emissions, in particular to meet our international commitments; to foster knowledge and understanding of greenhouse issues; and to lay the foundation for adaptation to climate change'. The Strategy provides: 'a broad menu of actions some of which will be implemented by governments acting individually, some by joint intergovernmental initiatives and some through partnerships between government, various stakeholders and the community.' In developing the NGS, consultation included Government agencies at national, state and local levels; and industry and community groups.

The NGS actions include development of a 'framework for progressing adaptation planning for biodiversity conservation, … providing for more detailed plans targeted towards components of biodiversity of conservation significance', including: endangered and vulnerable species and communities; assessment of the capacity of protected areas to sustain their biodiversity in the event of climate change; identification of altitudinal and latitudinal buffers; adaptation requirements of species and communities that are likely to be subject to a change in conservation status as a result of climate change; and options for addressing the secondary effects of climate change on biodiversity, such as altered fire regimes. The emphasis to date of the NGS has been on emission reduction, but the long term strategy will also address adaptation actions.

The Commonwealth, State and Territories have commenced action under the NGS, and a report reviewing implementation of the NGS is near completion. This report will provide an indication of Australia's progress towards reaching the NGS goals and implementing NGS actions.

Conclusion - The TSSC believe that a nationally co-ordinated threat abatement plan:

could not effectively reduce losses of climatic habitat, since the internationally-distributed causal factors (climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions) would continue;
would not contribute any additional threat mitigation over and above current initiatives;
would involve setting up further consultative bodies and duplicate consultation which has already taken place during development of the NGS; and
would duplicate actions underway or planned as part of the NGS.

TSSC therefore consider that a nationally co-ordinated threat abatement plan would not be a feasible, effective or efficient way to abate the process.

4. Recommendations

The TSSC recommends that the list referred to in section 183 of the EPBC Act be amended by including in the list as a key threatening process:
- loss of climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.
The Committee notes that the Commonwealth, States and Territories have actions underway to abate this Key Threatening Process and therefore recommends that a threat abatement plan is not considered a feasible, effective or efficient way to abate the process.
The Committee recommends that, along with the issues of emissions reduction, the adaptation requirements of species and communities likely to be affected by climate change should be given greater priority.

Biodiversity

Threatened species