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Publications
Griffith University and the Department of the Environment, Sport & Territories, 1997
David Hicks
Bath College of Higher Education
United Kingdom
This workshop introduces participants to the notion of alternative futures and encourages them to explore their own expectations and aspirations for the future, both in relation to their own country and the wider world.
During this workshop, participants will:
An activity asking participants to agree on a diamond ranking of the significance of a selection of trends for the future.
The concepts of preferable and probable futures is explored through either a mini-lecture or group discussion.
Participants draw their own probable and preferable timelines in the context of their own country.
In small groups, participants apply a futures perspective to a particular issue or curriculum area.
Resources
Resource 1: Some Trends for the Future
Resource 2: Educational Rationale for Futures Education
Resource 3: Futures Thinking: Some Examples
Resource 4: My Country in the World: The World in My Country
Reading
Reading 1: On Alternative Futures
Beare, H. and Slaughter, R (1993) Education for the Twenty-First Century, Routledge, London.
Gough, N. (1990) Futures in Australian Education: Tacit, Token and Taken for Granted, Futures, 22 (3), 298-310.
Hicks, D. (1994) Educating for the Future: A Practical Classroom Guide, World Wide Fund for Nature UK, Godalming.
Marien, M. and Jennings, L. (1987) What I Have Learned: Thinking About the Future Then and Now, Greenwood Press, New York.
Tough, A. (1992) Critical Questions About the Future, University Press of America, New York.
Wagar, W. (1992)The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come, Adamantine Press, London
For this activity each pair of participants will need a set of the nine statements on 'Some Trends for the Future' (Resource 1) cut up into slips. At the end of the activity each participant can be given a copy of the complete sheet.
Preferable
1950 Now 2050
Probable
Cultural Diversity
Whilst we are now all part of one global system, it is ethnic, cultural and historical differences amongst peoples that will increasingly influence national and global affairs in the future.
The Pacific Rim
The centre of world trade is now shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific Rim. Asian countries bordering the Pacific will become more important as they undergo the fastest period of economic expansion in history.
Gender Equity
Women are increasingly taking command of their own lives, both at work and at home. As gender relations become more equal, social priorities will change, and this will have a significant impact on the way in which society is organised and run.
Biotechnology
The new scientific frontier of genetic engineering is about to transform our lives whether we like it or not. This includes both the creation of new plant and animal breeds as well as alteration of human genes.
Religious Revival
There are now clear signs of a worldwide religious and spiritual revival, ranging from the growth of fundamentalist and evangelical groups to the spread of New Age beliefs and a renaissance of more ancient traditions.
Environmental Concern
Due to issues such as global warming and ozone depletion there is now an upsurge of popular interest in environmental issues. Increasingly, people are aware of the need to preserve and nurture the planet itself.
Wealth and Poverty
The nature of the world economic system is such that the gap between the countries of the rich North and the poor South will continue to increase. This growing division will create serious future problems.
Changing World Views
In the West there is now a major value shift away from a predominantly scientific and mechanistic view of the world to a more holistic and ecological one. This can now be seen internationally in many fields of enquiry.
Trend X
One of the most important trends in the last decade of the twentieth century which will have a major impact on the future is .......... (write own).
1. Pupil Motivation
Pupil expectation about the future can affect behaviour in the present, e.g. that something is, or is not, worth working for. Alternatively, clear images of desired personal goals can help stimulate motivation and achievement.
2. Anticipating Change
Anticipatory skills and flexibility of mind are important in times of rapid change. Such skills enable pupils to deal more effectively with uncertainty and to be pro-active rather than reactive to change.
3. Critical Thinking
In weighing up information, considering trends and imagining alternatives, pupils will need to exercise reflective and critical thinking. This is often triggered by realising the contradictions between how the world is now and how one would like it to be.
4. Clarifying Values
All images of the future are underpinned by differing value assumptions about human nature and society. In a democratic society pupils need to be able to begin to identify such value judgements before they can make appropriate choices between alternatives themselves.
5. Decision Making
Becoming more aware of trends and events which are likely to influence one's own future and investigating the possible consequences of one's actions on others in the future, leads to much more thoughtful decision making in the present.
6. Creative Imagination
One faculty that can contribute to, and which is particularly enhanced by, designing alternative futures is that of the creative imagination. Both this and critical thinking are needed to envision a range of preferable futures from the personal to the global.
7. A Better World
It is important in a democratic society that young people develop their sense of vision particularly in relation to more just and sustainable futures. Such forward thinking is an essential ingredient in both the preserving and improving of society.
8. Responsible Citizenship
Critical participation in democratic life leads to the development of political skills and thus more active and responsible citizenship. Future generations are then more likely to benefit, rather than lose, from decisions made today.
9. Stewardship
Understanding the short and long-term consequences of current local and global trends, as well as the action needed to change these, can lead to a sense of stewardship both for the planet now and for those yet to come.
1. State of the Planet
In the last decade of the 20th century the state of the planet continues to give serious cause for concern. Issues to do with the environment, development, conflict and human rights, have a major impact both locally and globally. Participants need to know about the causes of global problems, their likely impact on the future and the action needed to help resolve them.
2. Managing Change
In periods of rapid social and technological change the past cannot provide an accurate guide to the future. Anticipation and adaptability, foresight and flexibility, innovation and intuition, become increasingly essential tools for survival. Participants need to develop such skills in order to become more adaptable and pro-active towards change.
3. Hopes and Fears
Hopes and fears for the future often influence decision making in the present. Fears can lead to the avoidance of problems rather than their resolution. Clarifying hopes for the future often enhances motivation in the present and thus positive action for change. Participants need to explore their own hopes and fears for the future and learn to work creatively with them.
4. Views of the Future
People's views of the future may vary greatly depending, for example, on status, age, gender and culture, as well as their attitudes to change, to the environment and technology. Participants need to be aware of how views of the future thus differ and the ways in which this affects people's priorities in the present.
5. Alternative Futures
At any point in time a range of different futures is possible. It is useful to distinguish between probable futures, those which seem likely to come about, and preferable futures, those we feel should come about. Participants need to explore and debate a range of probable and preferable futures, from the personal to the global.
6. Past/Present/Future
Interdependence exists across both space and time. Past, present and future are inextricably connected. We are directly linked back in time by the oldest members of the community and forward nearly a century by those born today. Participants need to explore these links and to gain a sense of both continuity and change as well as of responsibility for the future.
7. Visions for the Future
The transition from one century to another, and particularly from one millennium to another, is often seen as a turning point for society. What needs to be left behind and what taken forward? Visions of a better future can help to motivate active and responsible citizenship in the present. Participants therefore need to develop their own skills of envisioning and their use of creative imagination.
8. Future Generations
Economists, philosophers and international lawyers increasingly recognise the rights of future generations. It has been suggested that no generation should inherit less human and natural wealth than the one that preceded it. Participants need to discuss the rights of future generations and what the responsibility to uphold them may involve.
9. Sustainable Futures
Current consumerist lifestyles on this planet are increasingly seen as unsustainable often causing more damage than benefit. Sustainable development, on the other hand, prioritizes concern for the environment, the poorest members of the community, and the needs of future generations. Participants need to understand how this applies to their everyday lives both personally and professionally.
____________________Preferable
1950 ____________________Now ____________________ 2050
____________________ Probable
Education for the Future
The 21st century will be very different from today and yet study of the future is a neglected issue in education. Young people are concerned about global issues but also often feel unprepared for what the future might bring. If all education is for the future then the future needs to become a more explicit element at all levels of education. Most of what goes on in education draws on the past, is enacted in the present, but is intended for some future use.
In a world where change seems increasingly rapid, whether at local, national or global scales, it is important to ask questions about the future. Where are we going and where do we want to go? What are my hopes and dreams for the future, for myself, for others and for the planet? What can we do together now in order to help create a more just and sustainable future?
Reasons for looking more explicitly at different futures in the classroom include:
1. Pupil Motivation
Pupil expectation about the future can affect behaviour in the present, e.g. that something is, or is not, worth working for. Alternatively, clear images of desirable personal goals can help stimulate motivation and achievement.
2. Anticipating Change
Anticipatory skills and flexibility of mind are important in times of rapid change. Such skills enable pupils to deal more effectively with uncertainty and to be pro-active rather the reactive to change.
3. Critical Thinking
In weighing up information, considering trends and imagining alternatives, pupils will need to exercise reflective and critical thinking. This is often triggered by realising the contradictions between how the world is now and how one would like it to be.
4. Clarifying Values
All images of the future are underpinned by differing value assumptions about human nature and society. In a democratic society pupils need to be able to begin to identify such value judgements before they can make appropriate choices between alternatives themselves.
5. Decision Making
Becoming more aware of trends and events which are likely to influence one's own future and investigating the possible consequences of one's actions on others in the future, leads to much more thoughtful decision making in the present.
6. Creative Imagination
One faculty that can contribute to, and which is particularly enhanced by, designing alternative futures is that of the creative imagination. Both this and critical thinking are needed to envision a range of preferable futures from the personal to the global.
7. A Better World
It is important in a democratic society that young people develop their sense of vision particularly in relation to more just and sustainable futures. Such forward thinking is an essential ingredient in both the preserving and improving of society.
8. Responsible Citizenship
Critical participation in democratic life leads to the development of political skills and thus more active and responsible citizenship. Future generations are then more likely to benefit, rather than lose, from decisions made today.
9. Stewardship
Understanding the short and long-term consequences of current local and global trends, as well as the action needed to change these, can lead to a sense of stewardship both for the planet now and for those yet to come.
Experiencing the Future
The future is an essential ingredient of daily life and integral to all human experience. Virtually every activity we engage in presumes some future continuation in time. Whenever we have aims, ambitions, make plans or take precautions, speculate or make commitments, we are concerned with the future. Without some sense of the future we could not even begin to articulate our hopes and dreams, let alone realise them. The future is an essential and constant ingredient in all human endeavour.
Within society, different groups will have quite different aspirations for the future. This may depend, for example, on political allegiance, income, gender, age, or ethnic group. Many of the futures espoused will be incompatible with others, thus groups compete for allegiance to their view of how things should be. At the same time it is those groups with the most power and influence in society which make their aspirations most visible, for example, governments, business and the media. Any concern for justice and equality, however, requires that the voices of the marginalised also be heard. For those living in the rich North concern for the future is often to do with quality of life. For those living in the poor South concern for the future is often to do with economic welfare.
Whilst many decisions about the future may be outside the individual's direct control, the images and expectations that people have of the future often affect what they think is worth doing in the present. Fear of the future can be disempowering but it can also lead to engagement in social and political action to bring a different sort of future about. The resurgence of the peace movement in the early 1980s, and the environmental movement more recently, are cases in point. The images that we have of the future matter because they help determine what we feel is worth working for.
Approaching the end of a century seems to concentrate the mind on the future, even more so the end of a millennium. The dates are, of course, Christian and in that sense the millennium is merely a Western concept. However, it is still a powerful one, combining as it does the end of a decade, the end of a century, the end of a millennium and of two thousand years of Christianity.
Such a date, 2001 not 2000 to be exact, becomes a symbolic threshold and a metaphor for the future itself. A last decade turns into a first, one century into another, the second millennium into the third. The timescale on which this turning point occurs is lent even more weight by its three-fold nature. Once an event comes to be perceived as some sort of potential turning point it becomes invested with even greater power. People feel presented with an opportunity to search for new beginnings and meanings, to close one door and open another. Is it to be the Apocalypse or a Golden Age?
The millennium presents us with an opportunity to re-examine ourselves, our values and institutions, and how we feel about the world we have inherited. It is likely that a spate of popular books will appear during the 1990s making all sorts of predication about the future. They will be read by our pupils and will need to be studied with a critical eye.
Colonised Futures
Critical to any understanding of alternative futures is the realisation that while, on the one hand, the future is uncertain, on the other many powerful interest groups are busy 'colonising' it. There is a parallel with the more familiar process of colonisation of territory. Thus the powerful groups in a society have already colonised the future, i.e. mapped out how the future should be to suit their interests. Adults do this frequently to children, white people to black people through institutionalised racism, in patriarchal society men dictate the future of women. In particular, consumer capitalism, with its constant quest for new markets and materials, colonises our minds and our futures. Business and advertising constantly create new needs that we did not know we had. Multinational corporations which control world trade, whether in oil, food or fashion, have planned the future well in advance. They will be there waiting for us, having manipulated our desires and invaded our dreams, to give us what we 'need' next.
Decisions made by similar powerful groups in the past now affect the present, whether the invention of the internal combustion engine, CFCs or nuclear weapons. In particular, politicians and scientists have made decisions on our behalf in the past with which we and future generations might now disagree. The future can thus also be colonised in the sense that various possible futures no longer exist, e.g. a future free of radioactive nuclear waste is no longer possible. Pupils need to understand this process and the way in which it undermines their own interests and those of future generations.
Views of the Future
People's views of the future can vary radically depending on their underlying assumptions and values. Consider the following five sketches of commonly held views of the future.
1. Business as Usual
This view is held by those who argue that the future will be very much like today. In other words, there will be the usual alarms and excursions, but nothing that cannot be effectively dealt with. The main problems in the future will be similar to those of today and solvable in similar ways; in short, the world will go on much as it has done before.
2. Edge of Disaster
This view is held by those who believe that we are on the verge of one or more major catastrophes, the signs of which are already clearly evident. They range from accidental nuclear war, major famine and poverty, breakdown of law and order, to environmental pollution and global warming. Life as we know it is on the verge of breakdown and when various elements collapse it will never be the same again.
3. Authoritarian Control
This view is held by those who feel that the risk of disaster is so great that the best solution is imposition of some form of strict external authority. Only this will be able to prevent major disorder by controlling, for example, population growth or the use of increasingly scarce resources. In this way chaos and confrontation, whether national or international, can be avoided.
4. Technological Growth
This view is held by those who believe that the answer to most problems lies in the accelerated growth of science and technology. Thus, nuclear energy, computerisation, genetic engineering, lunar colonisation, are all seen as offering dramatic rewards, especially for business. (This vision of the future particularly appeals to many men and boys.)
5. Ecological Insight
This view is held by those who believe that the future must be involve a major change in direction, away from a mechanistic and fragmented view of the world to a more holistic and ecological one. It requires a major shift away from the technical and economic goals towards a more humane, ecological and person-centred vision of society.
The actual future may well involve a mix of all these elements depending in part on who you are and where you live on this planet. All images of the future, popular and academic, reflect the inquirer's normative preconceptions. Wagar thus describes three main perspectives on the future which he defines as 'technoliberal', 'radical', and 'countercultural'.
The technoliberal approach embraces conservative and neo-conservative perspectives, which emphasise the power of technology to solve future problems. This is characteristic of much of the North American literature on futures. The radical approach embraces socialist and social-democratic perspectives, and challenges the political and economic models of the technoliberals. It is more commonly associated with European futurists. The counterculturalist approach embraces a variety of 'deep green' and New Age perspectives, which directly challenge many of the central values of Western society.
Probable/Preferable Futures
One of the most useful initial frameworks for exploring alternative futures is the distinction between probable and preferable futures. Probable futures are all those which seem likely to come about. They are often arrived at by the extrapolation of current trends, whether in relation to population growth, car ownership, desertification or global warming. Forecasts are then made about what is expected to happen. Most of the long-term planning carried out be business and industry is of this nature. When people think about the future it is often their image of the probable future that comes to mind. Much of the current debate about global warming, for example, is about which figures for temperature increase are most likely. Depending on which forecast is taken the consequences in terms of sea-level rise and changing climate vary considerably.
Preferable futures are all those which people feel should come about. Such desirable futures are based on our hopes, aspirations and dreams. They embody our notions of what a better world might be like. Throughout history it has been such visions which have inspired struggles for better working conditions, the right to free speech and the right to vote. We benefit today from what others fought for in the past, inheriting crucial elements of their preferable futures.
Studying alternative futures and drawing on the tools and techniques that futurists use can greatly enhance any investigation of contemporary social, political, economic and technological issues. Emphasising the futures dimension in education is essential because this is the only part of history still open to change.
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