Australia's emissions projections

Overview

  • Australia’s cumulative abatement task has fallen to 431 Mt CO2-e.
  • To achieve Australia's unconditional 2020 target of 5 per cent below 2000 levels, Australia must reduce its emissions by 131 Mt CO2-e in 2020.

Australia’s abatement task

Recent modelling conducted by the Treasury and the former Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (now the Department of the Environment) indicates the amount of emissions reductions required to achieve Australia’s 2020 target of 5 per cent below 2000 levels is less than previous estimates.

Australia’s abatement task to 2020 has fallen to 431 Mt CO2-e

Australia’s abatement task from 2013 to 2020 has fallen from 755 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) in Australia’s Emissions Projections 2012, to 591 Mt CO2‑e in modelling undertaken for the Climate Change Authority’s (CCA’s) Targets and Progress Review Draft Report. This reduction is mainly attributable to a revised outlook for activity in emissions‑intensive sectors of the economy.

When other factors such as abatement from two years of the carbon tax and the ability to use surplus reductions achieved in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol are taken into account, Australia’s abatement task falls from 591 to 431 Mt CO2‑e.

The Department of the Environment has developed a fact sheet that explains how Australia’s abatement task has changed since Australia’s Emissions Projections 2012. The Department has also prepared a summary of the key sectoral outcomes of the emissions projections underpinning CCA’s Targets and Progress Review Draft Report.

Modelling to support the Climate Change Authority

The Treasury and the former Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education provided Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios: Modelling report provided to the Climate Change Authority in support of its Caps and Targets Review which informed CCA’s ‘Targets and Progress’ review.

The underlying data for this modelling can be found in Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios: modelling report provided to the Climate Change Authority in support of its Caps and Target review.

Archived publications

Further information