Uncertainty analysis of data, linking conceptual models to on-site management and communicating risk. Discussion series on ARRTC Key Knowledge Needs: Powerpoint presentation and accompanying notes. Presentation for eriss Planning Workshop

2003

Internal Report 435
Bayliss P, Hogan A, Walden D, Boyden J, Camilleri C & Begg G
Supervising Scientist Division
Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts

About the report

This document is a discussion paper and Powerpoint slides for ARRTC 2003 key knowledge needs. The document covers:

  1. Uncertainty analysis of data
  2. Linking conceptual models with on-site management & communications

These two questions are linked under the one heading ‘Managing in the face of uncertainty’, introduced through the following discussion points:

  1. The Classical approach to science - testing single null-hypotheses with experiments.
  2. The New approach – testing multiple hypotheses with observations & using models to evaluate hypotheses.
  3. What is uncertainty and how to model it?
  4. Models for understanding, prediction and decision.
  5. How to confront models with data – the new tools.
  6. Examples – from conceptual to operational.
    • Ecological risk assessment of Ranger – downstream water quality
    • Ecological risk assessment of mimosa on Oenpelli Floodplain
    • Comparison of mining & non-mining ecological risks
  7. Communicating with models and the modelling process, including decision-making.