Uncertainty analysis of data, linking conceptual models to on-site management and communicating risk. Discussion series on ARRTC Key Knowledge Needs: Powerpoint presentation and accompanying notes. Presentation for eriss Planning Workshop
Internal Report 435
Bayliss P, Hogan A, Walden D, Boyden J, Camilleri C & Begg G
Supervising Scientist Division
Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts
About the report
This document is a discussion paper and Powerpoint slides for ARRTC 2003 key knowledge needs. The document covers:
- Uncertainty analysis of data
- Linking conceptual models with on-site management & communications
These two questions are linked under the one heading ‘Managing in the face of uncertainty’, introduced through the following discussion points:
- The Classical approach to science - testing single null-hypotheses with experiments.
- The New approach – testing multiple hypotheses with observations & using models to evaluate hypotheses.
- What is uncertainty and how to model it?
- Models for understanding, prediction and decision.
- How to confront models with data – the new tools.
- Examples – from conceptual to operational.
- Ecological risk assessment of Ranger – downstream water quality
- Ecological risk assessment of mimosa on Oenpelli Floodplain
- Comparison of mining & non-mining ecological risks
- Communicating with models and the modelling process, including decision-making.