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Conclusion

The evidence presented here indicates that population change patterns in Australia's largest capital cities have become more complex over the last 15 years. The model of inner and middle city decline and growth in the outer rings of urban development has been replaced by a more complex pattern in which the positive correlation between population growth rate and distance from the city centre has been eroded. This undoubtedly is partly due to demographic factors. It has been shown (Hugo 1986) that in the early post-war years of rapid population growth and lateral expansion of Australian cities whole suburbs tended to be initially settled by people in the young family formation ages and their children. As these groups have aged in place and their children left the population declines. However, as these original settlers die or move into aged care accommodation their houses come onto the market and are purchased by younger people. This often sees one occupant of a home replaced by two or three occupants, causing population growth. However, it is also clear that other elements are also at work. On the one hand local city and state governments are encouraging urban consolidation. There are some elements in the population who are showing a preference for inner city "caf society" type lifestyles. This has undoubtedly caused increased population growth in inner and middle suburbs. On the other hand growth on the periphery has certainly not ceased especially in the fastest growing cities. The 2001 census is likely to see an increase in the level of central and middle city population growth. No longer can it be assumed that the vast bulk of population growth will occur in the peripheries of Australia's large cities. However, these peripheries will continue to be the location of much of the growth of the metropolitan populations. It is important that the forces encouraging growth in the different ecological contexts of the major cities be identified if accurate anticipation of future changes in population growth is going to be achieved as a basis for better metropolitan planning.

References

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Copyright statement

Commonwealth of Australia 2002

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