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Indicator: HS-08 Populations projections

Data

Population Change in Mega Metro Regions
2002-2011

Mega Metro Region	Population		Population Change	Percentage Change (%)
	2002	2011	2002-2011	2002-2011
Sydney	4 940 474	5 351 541	411 067	8.32
Port Phillip	3 831 731	4 202 811	371 080	9.68
South East Queensland	2 436 464	2 926 671	490 207	20.12
Perth Corridor	1 475 667	1 676 906	201 239	13.64
All Australia	19 660 189	21 521 416	1 861 227	9.47

Source: Department of Health and Aged Care 2005, Population projections data, Department of Health and Aged Care, Canberra.

• Population Projections; Australia 2002-2101 (PDF - 1402 KB) 

What the data mean

Series A - assumes that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will reach 1.8 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve through to 2050-51 reaching 92.2 years for males and 95.0 years for females, net overseas migration (NOM) of 125,000 per year from 2005-06 through to 2050-51, and high flows of interstate migration.

Series B - assumes that the TFR will fall to 1.6 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve each year, though at a declining rate, and will reach 84.2 years for males and 87.7 years for females in 2050-51, NOM of 100,000 per year from 2005-06 through to 2050-51, and medium flows of interstate migration.

Series C - assumes that the TFR will fall to 1.4 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant through to 2050-51, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve each year, though at a declining rate, and will reach 84.2 years for males and 87.7 years for females in 2050-51, NOM of 70,000 per year from 2005-06 through to 2050-51, and small flows of interstate migration.

Australia's population is projected to grow to 26.4 million (median forecast or Series II). The projected increases in the populations of Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australia between 2002 and 2051 will be higher than that projected for Australia's population.

All capital cities will experience larger percentage growth than their respective state balances leading to further concentration of the population within capital cities (increasing from 64% in 2002 to 67% in 2051).

Sydney and Melbourne will remain the two largest cities with 5.7 and 4.8 million respectively in 2051 followed by Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Darwin and Hobart.

Of the mega metro regions (MMR) associated with the four most populous capital cities, Sydney MMR, Port Phillip region, Southeast Queensland MMR and the Perth Corridor, are projected to grow faster than the national average.

The Population projections to 2011 show that the Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) that will experience higher population growth are those on or close to coastal areas.

Issues for which this is an indicator and why

Human Settlements — External pressures on human settlements - Population growth and distribution 

The projection on population size into the future is a surrogate indicator for the pressure of human settlements and on human settlements.

Other indicators for this issue:

• HS-05 Total population and distribution 
• HS-07 Migration patterns 
• LD-15 Area and proportion of land surface occupied by human settlements, structures and activities that support human settlement 

Further Information

• Population Projections Australia 1999 to 2101