State of the Environment 2011 (SoE 2011)

State of the Environment 2011 Committee. Australia state of the environment 2011.
Independent report to the Australian Government Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities.
Canberra: DSEWPaC, 2011.

6 Marine environment

6 Risks to the marine environment

At a glance

The main risks to the future of the marine environment are from the impacts of climate change—mainly increased temperature, ocean acidification and sea level changes. The interaction of these with the legacy effects of past poor management practices, and with the existing pressures of fishing, catchment-derived pollutants, and coastal urban, industry and port development, pose a major threat to the values of marine ecosystems as we currently know them.

The changes are likely to affect the natural diversity and ecology of inshore waters, bays, estuaries and intertidal zones, and the fishing, recreation and tourism industries, with unpredictable results. For example, as ocean temperatures rise, the survival of cold-water species that are fished may be gradually reduced, but these species might be temporarily replaced by warmer water species. In the east, the impacts of rising ocean temperatures will also affect coral species diversity, distribution and, ultimately, survival.

Each region has a specific set of pressures that will almost certainly increase in risk ranking over the coming 20–50 years, given current management arrangements. For example, in the north-west, while many habitats and species populations are in near-pristine condition, more impacts will occur with the escalation of the oil and gas industry. The lack of a regionally integrated framework for management of the marine environment is currently a major risk, and this will increase as the pressures and complexities grow, with unpredictable consequences for marine ecosystems.

This section summarises the main risks to the marine environment and ranks their potential for impact in 20-year and 50-year timeframes, presented in the form of a simplified risk assessment matrix. These risks have been assessed as remaining risks, taking into account current management arrangements that apply in the relevant jurisdictions. The risk assessment approach and grading statements are described in Chapter 1: Approach.

Assessment summary 6.9—current and emerging risks
	Catastrophic	Major	Moderate	Minor
Almost certain	Ocean temperature increases, with impacts on corals, fish and plankton Ocean acidification, with impacts on plankton and production, corals, and shell calcification processes	Port development or coastal urban development, leading to destruction or disturbance of the environment Fishing (recreational and illegal), leading to change or loss of species or impacts on ecosystems Marine debris, which may poison or entangle species Sea level rise and impacts of coastal erosion and inundation Extreme or severe event (storm, tidal, rainfall, flooding), which may increase run-off and sediment/nutrient levels Increase in catchment-sourced nutrients, sediments and toxins Algal blooms in estuaries, which can be toxic or may result in hypoxic water Ocean current changes, leading to shifts in production	Fishing (commercial), leading to change or loss of species or impacts on ecosystems Shipping, leading to the wider introduction of pests Beach or shoreline modifications, leading to change or loss of habitat Oil and gas extraction, leading to increased shipping and onshore development, and consequent impacts on ecosystems	Fishing (traditional), leading to change or loss of species Vessel strikes on cetaceans Ghost fishing—lost nets that may entangle species
Likely	Aquaculture disease escapes, with impacts on native species	Oil and gas accidents, or oil spills, with impacts on species populations, ecosystems and habitat Shipping accidents, with impacts on species populations and habitats Mining of sand, shorelines and islands, leading to destruction or disturbance to species populations and habitats Pest species introductions and outbreaks, leading to increased competition or other impacts for native species Lack of integrated management, affecting the conservation of ecosystems	Aquaculture sea cages and related risks of waste disposal, dependence of wild species, impacts on feed stock Desalination discharges, with impacts on water quality and habitats River damming or flood mitigation that changes local habitats and freshwater flows into the ocean	Oil and gas exploration and related risks of seabed disturbance Coastal and island tourism facilities, leading to disturbance or destruction of the environment
Possible	Major volcanic/tectonic event in Indonesian plate; leading to tsunami and atmospheric deposition		Introduced species outbreaks Shipping noise, with impacts on marine mammals
Unlikely
Rare

Not considered

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Acropora coral reef, Great Barrier Reef, Queensland. Photo by Gary Bell